Home » Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems: Decisions Under Uncertainties and Risks by Yuri Ermoliev
Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems: Decisions Under Uncertainties and Risks Yuri Ermoliev

Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems: Decisions Under Uncertainties and Risks

Yuri Ermoliev

Published February 1st 2012
ISBN : 9783642228834
Paperback
378 pages
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 About the Book 

Managing safety of diverse systems requires decision-making under uncertainties and risks. Such systems are typically characterized by spatio-temporal heterogeneities, inter-dependencies, externalities, endogenous risks, discontinuities, irreversibility, practically irreducible uncertainties, and rare events with catastrophic consequences. Traditional scientific approaches rely on data from real observations and experiments- yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and experiments are usually impossible. Therefore, science-based support for addressing such new class of problems needs to replace the traditional deterministic predictions analysis by new methods and tools for designing decisions that are robust against the involved uncertainties and risks. The new methods treat uncertainties explicitly by using synthetic information derived by integration of hard elements, including available data, results of possible experiments, and formal representations of scientific facts, with soft elements based on diverse representations of scenarios and opinions of public, stakeholders, and experts. The volume presents such effective new methods, and illustrates their applications in different problem areas, including engineering, economy, finance, agriculture, environment, and policy making.